Southern Metropolis Daily: coal prices in the third quarter of the coal industry are expected to turn downward
the affordability of downstream industrial users has reached the limit
although the industry generally believes that the long-term bullish trend of coal prices has not changed, there are different voices at present
Lu Fengming, a member of the power industry of industrial securities, controlled the limit load at the time of damage to 20-80% of the scale at this level in August. When he first went to Guangzhou holdings, a fuel company that owns the largest market coal broker in Guangzhou, Li tenggao, a representative of Guangkong securities, said that since early July, he felt that the affordability of downstream industrial users for coal prices was close to the limit, so he was gradually controlling the coal inventory, At the same time, for some users who may have doubts about their ability to pay, reduce the fuel supply. The spring testing machine of Jinan new era Gold Testing Instrument Co., Ltd. is a special instrument for testing springs. In the view of Guangkong, the coal price may have a certain correction in the third quarter
when the correction has not yet arrived, compared with the five major power groups that have successively entered the coal mining industry, Guangdong's coal resources in the province with large energy demand are very limited, and Guangdong power enterprises have set their sights on the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain to seek breakthroughs
the two major power enterprises in Guangdong lost money and slipped.
amid the cries of power enterprises across the country, Guangdong power enterprises also had a hard time. Affected by the sharp rise in fuel and transportation prices in the first half of the year, the two largest power generation enterprises both experienced a sharp decline in profits due to the rise in the production cost of coal-fired power generation. Among them, the net profit of Guangdong electric power in the first half of the year is expected to be about -50million to -60million yuan; Guangkong also announced that its net profit in the first half of the year is expected to decrease by 75% compared with the same period last year, excluding the impact of the transfer of 20% equity of Guangzhou North Second Ring Expressway Co., Ltd. in the same period last year, a decrease of 50%
"during the survey, Guangzhou holdings expects that the coal price may be corrected in the third quarter, and the profitability of the company's subordinate power plants will be improved at that time." Lu Fengming told. Lu Yexun, an expert of the China Mining Federation, also believes that the current export coal price has turned downward, and even if the domestic coal price rises, the range will not be too large. "The current price level is not beyond the reasonable range. Those enterprises with high energy utilization can be digested, but those with high energy consumption and low utilization may not be digested. However, it is normal for these enterprises to be eliminated, which is conducive to the optimization of the energy structure."
He Jun, a senior analyst at Anbang information group, pointed out that the recent slight decline in coal prices was the result of macro-control by the national development and Reform Commission. "This situation of strict price control is likely to lead to two results. One is that it will eventually be pushed higher by the market and cannot be held down. The other is that even if the indicated price is suppressed, the market will have yin-yang contracts, reduce the supply of planned coal and other substantial price increases."
Guangdong power enterprises seek industrial chain expansion
when in trouble, they want to change. "Either participate in the upstream coal enterprises, or start from the intermediate links to reduce the cost of coal transportation." Wu Chenghou, a consultant of China coal transportation and Marketing Association, believes that the two major power enterprises in Guangdong have suffered losses and slipped, and seeking to alleviate the cost pressure has become a top priority
in fact, the coal price pressure of Guangkong, which also focuses on power generation, is much smaller than that of Guangdong electric power. Tian Zhonghua, an analyst in the power industry of Orient Securities, pointed out that in terms of expansion mode, early 4. Experimental force indication error: Guangkong, which entered the middle of the industrial chain within ± 0.5% of the indication value, is actively seeking resources from upstream coal enterprises. At present, it has preliminarily built a complete coal industrial chain integrating production, transportation, Hong Kong and sales. At this stage, Zhujiang Power Fuel Company has become an important source of profit
"go to the grass-roots level and the people to make contributions. Guangkong has a clear understanding of the current competition pattern - relying on the development of power business alone, its competitiveness is far less than that of enterprises with strong backgrounds in other groups, so it has been seeking a distinctive way of survival." Lu Fengming believes that the positioning of energy suppliers is mainly based on Guangkong's understanding of the energy demand of industrial enterprises in the Pearl River Delta, and industrial enterprises do have a demand for "one-stop" energy supply
the expansion of the industrial chain is more urgent for Guangdong electric power, which has suffered losses in the first half of the year. On August 6, the board of directors of Guangdong electric power decided to jointly increase the capital of Guangdong Yuedian Shipping Co., Ltd. with the major shareholder Guangdong Yuedian group. A relevant person from Guangdong Electric Power said that increasing the capital of shipping companies and vigorously developing the scale of their own transportation capacity are conducive to ensuring the transportation of electricity and coal and enhancing the ability to control transportation costs
"in addition to the coal price factor, another factor leading to the sharp decline in profits of power enterprises is the high management cost of power enterprises." He Jun pointed out that domestic power enterprises are basically large state-owned enterprises, and the low efficiency of state-owned enterprises is a common problem. "In the face of the pressure of high coal prices, reducing enterprise management costs and administrative expenses is a good way to reduce pressure, but it is estimated to be more difficult." (Wang Haiyan also contributed to this article) (Li Qiantao)