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2022-07-31
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Economic data will be released soon foreign trade in June will be difficult to "turn over"

economic data will be released soon foreign trade in June will be difficult to "turn over"

information on China's construction machinery

Guide: the 12th Five year plan starts in the middle of the year, and the debate about China's economic hard landing or soft landing is still fierce. To control inflation and stabilize growth, we should consider the wisdom of regulation. In the first five months, the consumer price (CPI) has always been high, but some customers need the same testing price, strong housing

at the beginning of the 12th Five Year Plan, the debate on whether China's economy will have a "hard landing" or a "soft landing" is still fierce. To control inflation and stabilize growth, high-tech is not only the main feature of modern instruments, but also whether we can have both "fish and bear's paw" and consider the wisdom of regulation

in the first five months, the consumer price (CPI) has always been high. The soaring meat price, strong house price and the disastrous weather with the sharp turn of drought and flood have all added to the inflation situation. What is more puzzling is that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) is approaching the boom red line, and the import and export situation is not optimistic... The slowdown in economic growth is an indisputable fact

seeing that a series of economic data for June and the second quarter are about to be released, the State Council will hold relevant meetings this month to analyze the economic situation in the first half of the year and set policy ideas for the second half of the year. At this critical time point, whether the CPI will reach a new high, whether the import and export growth can be maintained, and what changes will take place in the monetary policy in the second half of the year... The market is "nervous" to wait and see

pmi leading indicators continued to fall, container transport data is still weak, and the market is not optimistic about the foreign trade data of June to be released by the General Administration of Customs on the 10th

according to the forecasts of several institutions, the foreign trade data in June was generally "undervalued": exports will continue to decline, and imports will not maintain the strong trend at the beginning of the year

from the perspective of PMI sub indicators, the newly released index of new export orders in June was 50.5%, which has fallen for three consecutive months since April. As a leading indicator of exports, the decline of the index indicates that the export growth rate may decline in June to some extent

looking at the container transportation data, the export volume of major routes rose weakly in the first three weeks of June. Among them, the North American route is not prosperous in the peak season, and the overall transportation demand declines; The cargo volume of European routes was stable, but the growth rate was less than expected; Affected by the strike of port workers, the cargo volume of Australia New Zealand route shrank and the utilization level of shipping space was not high

"the domestic credit crunch has led to difficulties in the operation of small and medium-sized export enterprises. The US economic recovery has slowed down and the shadow of the European debt crisis remains. Both domestic and foreign economic situations have had a negative impact on exports." According to the report of the financial research center of Bank of communications, the export growth rate in June was 18.4%, which was more difficult to operate than that in May 19 An increase of 4 percent, a full percentage point lower

in terms of import, in June, the PMI import index was 48.7%, which was lower than the 50% boom and bust line, and fell for four consecutive months, which made the market's expectation of import decline also rise day by day

many market participants believe that in the future, the import growth rate will not rise sharply as in the fourth quarter of last year and the beginning of this year, which is mainly due to the fall in domestic demand of China's economy

Lu Zhengwei, senior economist of Industrial Bank, believes that the metal ore transportation market was light in June, and the price of iron ore fell, which indirectly indicates that the domestic market has not strong demand for bulk commodities, thus dragging down imports. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of imports in June will drop to 24 Within the 0% range, the median value was 25.2%, 3.2 percentage points lower than that in May

it is worth noting that from the month on month comparison of working days in June, the import and export are more likely to decline year-on-year

according to the analysis of Political Commissar Lu, the working days in June were 21 days, which was the same as that in May. In most years from 2000 to 2010, the working days in June were higher month on month. "This year is significantly lower than the same period in previous years, which is not conducive to the upward trend of trade volume.". Based on the above, let's follow the technical personnel 1 to see what should be paid attention to when selecting the impact testing machine! It is estimated that the export in June will drop to 15% year-on-year Within the 2% range, the median value was 16.4%, 2.9 percentage points lower than that in May

in the future, the report of BOCOM believes that the US economic slowdown will continue for some time, and the European debt crisis will be difficult to solve in the short term, and may be further amplified, which may slow down international demand. At the same time, the rising domestic labor cost and tight liquidity may also worsen the operating conditions of domestic export enterprises, and the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year is still not optimistic

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