The hottest who saved the glass market for 17 year

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Who saved the glass market for 17 years - Shahe glass annual report

year, it is normal for glass to use jaws for a long time to contact materials for damage. The upstream market of glass has been booming for two years, and the upstream market has made huge profits. The main factor is that the changes in the upstream supply side are superimposed on the warming of the real estate market, and the relationship between supply and demand has been reversed. 2017 is a year with significant environmental protection effects under the general direction of supply side reform. If we say that the supply side of glass has changed, in fact, it has appeared since the bankruptcy of China Resources in October 2015 and the shutdown of Shahe Daguang in January 2016. In November 2016, the shutdown and withdrawal of the last four GEFA glass manufacturers in Shahe from the market has become an opportunity for the final increase of the year. The shutdown of these production lines is related to the tightening of environmental protection

since 2011, the glass industry has fallen into an era of meager profits, with upstream price wars, midstream profits shrinking and downstream orders sharply decreasing. In the situation of declining demand side, the glass industry has expanded too fast, resulting in serious overcapacity, and the industry is generally in a state of loss. At the same time, the pressure of environmental protection is increasing. A large number of glass production lines have been withdrawn from the market since the second half of 2014, and this situation has continued until the end of 2015. In 2016, when the glass price went all the way, it brought accidents to the circle

it was the South China market that led the rise in the glass industry in that year, and Shahe glass rose only driven by inventory. In the annual summary of 2016, a voice believed that the good glass market in 2016 was a factor for the reduction of supply in the upstream market. The rich profits of manufacturers will increase the production capacity of the supply side, while the demand side will be consumed in advance by the better sales situation. The market in 2017 is not optimistic. Review of Shahe glass market in 2017 the Shahe glass market in 2017 can be summarized with one key word: price support operation. In 2017, the Shahe glass market can be divided into two stages. In the first half of the year, the price was maintained, and in the second half, the booming demand was superimposed on the shutdown, which was profitable. In 2017, Shahe glass manufacturers insisted on supporting prices, laying the position of Shahe glass leading the glass industry. In the first quarter, after the Spring Festival holiday, the middle and lower reaches of the market began to concentrate on stocking and starting work, bringing a wave of de stocking and price adjustment cycle to the Shahe glass market

the manufacturer's inventory pressure is reduced to a certain extent, and the mainstream sheet price is slightly increased by 0 6 yuan/square meter. In June, as the main processing machine, the recycled plastic granulator will have a large customer base. Shahe glass began to enter the period of accumulated inventory and price support. Some small factories achieved low inventory by attracting limited demand through flexible sales strategies, while some large enterprises insisted on price support and high inventory. In early April, Shahe's inventory accumulated more than 80000 units, half of which were concentrated in the safety inventory of leading large enterprises. In order to alleviate the pressure of inventory, the safety manufacturer stipulates the minimum inventory of local dealers, and gives preferential policies to encourage them. In mid April, after the East China and South China meeting, the surrounding market rose. Stimulated by the expectation of manufacturers' rise, Shahe glass market re entered the traders to replenish inventory. With the addition of new demand from May this year, the current round of increase in Shahe mainstream thin plate rose by 0 8 yuan/square meter. In the first half of the year, the market once again entered a stable price support cycle. During the rainy season, Shahe market continued to operate at a stable price, and inventory accumulated to a high level

however, due to the expectation of the golden nine silver ten peak season, the manufacturer has a good attitude of price support. In August, under the expectation of golden nine and silver ten, traders prepared goods in advance, and Shahe market led the rise in other regions. After the Zibo meeting on the 12th, the whole industry entered the mode of centralized price adjustment. In this round, the mainstream thin plate in Shahe market rose by 0 2 yuan/square meter, the manufacturer's inventory was also reduced from 4.2 million weight boxes to 2.08 million weight boxes, effectively reducing the inventory pressure of some large enterprises. Since 2017, Shahe market has been leading the rise in other regions, with relatively rapid and large price increases. Shahe products that rely on export are significantly higher than the landed products after the superimposed freight. During the golden nine silver ten period, the Shahe market performance was stable

Under the influence of the national day and the busy farming season in the north, the inventory accumulated again in November. By the beginning of November, the inventory of Shahe manufacturers had increased to 5.12 million weight boxes in the early stage of Shahe's large-scale shutdown, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers had doubled. During the National Day, some manufacturers also had small preferential activities. In November, some production lines in Shahe were shut down and gradually implemented under the national environmental protection policy, breaking the original production and marketing balance in Shahe area, which became the driving force for the rise of Shahe market again, thus driving the rise of surrounding markets. In this round, the price of mainstream thin plates in Shahe market rose by 0 2 yuan/square meter, and the inventory also decreased from 5.1 million weight boxes to 2.96 million weight boxes. After December, the downstream demand gradually slowed down, and Shahe manufacturers accumulated reserves again. Looking at the market trend of the whole year in 2017, Shahe manufacturers have roughly experienced four rounds of major increases, respectively in February, April, August and November. Compared with other regions, Shahe market is basically one step ahead of others

the above quotation is collected from the market, and the medium price is selected for reference only. In terms of Shahe's production capacity in 2017, Dejin's new 1000 ton/day production line was put into operation in the first half of the year, with a slight increase in production capacity. In terms of other cold repair and resumption of production, there was little change in production capacity. The net increase in production capacity once restricted the further rise of glass prices in the first half of the year. As the benchmark of domestic spot price, the capacity comparison of Shahe has attracted attention in the industry, and the change of capacity also affects the trend of spot price in the glass industry. In the second half of the year, Shahe's centralized shutdown aimed to reduce or eliminate the release of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) became a major event in the industry. A total of 9 float glass production lines were shut down in Shahe region, involving a capacity of 5800 tons/day, accounting for 20% of Shahe's capacity and 4% of the national capacity. At present, the dissolving capacity of Shahe is 23000 tons/day, which still accounts for a large proportion in the country. Several views on the trend of 2018 there are basically two views on the trend of glass market in 2018. First, tight supply and strict environmental protection will shift the focus of glass prices upward in 2018. The view is that tight supply and strict environmental protection are the main line of glass prices in 2018. Against this background, glass prices are optimistic and it is difficult to see a sharp decline. On the one hand, the shutdown of production lines in Shahe region has a strong supporting effect on local and surrounding prices, and the situation of Shahe price depression is expected to change in the future. On the other hand, the supply of the glass industry as a whole will be significantly reduced in 2018, the downstream terminal demand for glass will not be significantly weakened, and the way of price linkage in various regions will be enhanced. In 2018, the reduction of supply side production and strict environmental protection are still the main drivers of glass price changes

in addition, the source of the slight decline in demand is real estate, the cost pressure is relieved in soda ash, the price differences between regions are balanced and reshaped, Shahe is no longer a price depression, but the Baoli degree will continue, and the impact of the new environmental protection standards on manufacturers will appear. The second point of view, from the supply side, demand side, cost side and so on, gives the prediction of the glass market in 2018. On the whole, it may still be a pattern of weak supply and demand and oversupply. Its view is that after the shutdown of Shahe line 9, the decline of glass inventory is not high, and the inventory is still more than 30million heavy containers, which reflects the serious decline on the demand side. The demand for glass in 2018 is relatively pessimistic. There are no bright spots in real estate, exports and automobiles, and the demand for glass in real estate may fall sharply. From the perspective of supply side, nine production lines in Shahe area have been shut down, and three float lines are still facing shutdown. The supply side is reduced by 4% and may be reduced to 5% in the later stage. In addition, many production lines that were ignited in 2009 have not been cold repaired, and there is a general decline in the supply side

2018 market forecast on January 5, the people's Government Office of Hebei Province held a press conference. In 2017, Hebei Province reduced the glass production capacity by 5million weight. Shandong Sida high tech mechanical equipment Co., Ltd. produced vertical brake pad shear testing machine and horizontal brake pad shear testing chassis. In 2018, it will reduce the glass production capacity by 5million weight boxes. At the policy level, environmental protection efforts and supply side reform will not be completely relaxed in 2018, and Shahe glass industry is also expected to close production lines. In 2017, the nine production lines that were discontinued in Shahe have a low probability of resumption of production in the short term. From the perspective of supply side, there is still a price support expectation in the glass industry in the first quarter and the second quarter. In terms of Shahe market, the prices of some manufacturers have fallen continuously after new year's day, opening the price gap with large enterprises with high prices

the fall in price did not increase shipments, but increased market wait-and-see sentiment and affected surrounding markets. Up to now, Shahe manufacturers have 5.04 million weight boxes in stock, and some large enterprises with high prices have up to 2.7 million weight boxes in stock. Before the Spring Festival holiday, the market price fall of Shahe glass has been partially implemented, and the probability of price fall of high priced large enterprises in the later period has also increased. However, after the Spring Festival holiday, the centralized procurement in the northern downstream market has also greatly boosted the price of Shahe glass, and the price of Shahe glass is expected to pick up in the first quarter. On the demand side, after two years of strong operation, the real estate market superimposed the impact of policy level regulation, and the probability of glass demand weakened

at the same time, the impact of environmental protection policies on the upstream market also affects the progress of terminal real estate projects. Around New Year's day, the orders of northern terminal processing plants surveyed by glass observation decreased significantly, with a decrease of 50% month on month in November and 20% year on year in the same period last year. The year-on-year decrease also shows that the demand side is weakening. The new demand will be added in May next spring. In the second quarter, the price and inventory of Shahe glass will still be under pressure. Glass observation believes that although there is no big bright spot in the real estate market in 2018, there will be no reduction in the demand for cliff glass, and real estate still has a certain demand support for the glass market

under the effect of stricter environmental protection policies and lucrative industry profits, the production capacity of the glass supply side will not fluctuate significantly. In the first quarter, Shahe market fluctuated around the Spring Festival, and the overall price weakened. In the second quarter, there will be a lack of new and old demand in the downstream market, and the price and inventory of Shahe glass will be under pressure to the greatest extent. Entering the second quarter, the market price may have a high probability of price correction. In the past two years, the difference between the low and peak seasons of glass prices is not significant, but there is a slight low and peak season performance in inventory. In 2018, the price may fluctuate significantly with the inventory in the slack and peak seasons. The traditional peak season demand for glass in the third and fourth quarters is still predictable on the basis of the second quarter, but the range is slightly lower than that in the previous two years

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